What I would change to improve the Islanders
With the season on a precipice, here's some things the New York Islanders can do now to improve
The New York Islanders are at an interesting point in their season. After the horror start, they’ve strung together a couple of wins and some overtime losses.
The season is in the balance. They poor play could continue and we see the team finish in the bottom 10 of the league or they could turn the corner and fight for a playoff spot.
Perhaps I am being overly optimistic but it would not shock me to see the team turn things around.
The start of the season did not help. COVID made things worse. Meanwhile Ryan Pulock is still recovering from the injury he sustained in November, but is expected to return soon. The team is not as strong as it has been in previous seasons, but at least the remainder of the season is mostly home games and hopefully with the team mostly intact.
Whether pushing for a playoff spot or not, here are some things the Isles should change or address to improve.
Lines
At least for the rest of the season, here’s how I’d run the lines:
Lee-Barzal-Palmieri/Parise
Beauvillier-Nelson-Bailey
Bellows/Panik-Pageau-Wahlstrom
Palmieri/Parise/Panik-Cizikas-Clutterbuck
Apart from the 4th-line, these aren’t too controversial. Here is my argument:
This is not unprecedented in today’s NHL. The Panthers often play Patric Hornqvist on the 4th-line. The Maple Leafs have Wayne Simmonds and Jason Spezza on theirs. The Lightning (and last year the Canadiens) played Corey Perry on the 4th-line.
When you’re on the Islanders’ 4th-line, it is not an insult. On other 4th-lines, perhaps it would be. On the Islanders, it is a recognition that you are a vital contributor to the success of the team.
Palmieri’s style of play may actually mesh well with Cizikas and Clutterbuck. Palmieri does his damage close to the net. Clutterbuck is more of a shooter, while Cizikas is best skating at the net and deking the goalie or working behind it to set up Matt Martin.
Even when the Isles 4th-line was unquestionably the best in the NHL, many chances were missed, simply because they’re not natural scorers. Palmieri is. While certainly not close to the size of Martin, he has demonstrated qualities that indicate he could fit in there. He is willing to check and clearly enjoys a melee.
Failing that, Parise or Panik would certainly add some speed to the line. I get that Lou and Trotz probably love fighting, but they’re likely going to persist with Zdeno Chara in the line-up, so it is hard to see the need for Martin or Ross Johnston to be in the line-up.
Minor power play changes
Just take Josh Bailey off. He slows everything down.
The powerplay is about speed. Get the defenders out of position so you have a clear shot. It isn’t that complicated.
As soon as Bailey touches the puck he hesitates, allowing the defenders to reset.
Driving to the net more would be useful too. With the lack of good skaters on the team, it can be hard to gain the zone. When the Isles do skate it in, they immediately look to push it back to the defender to set up their formation.
Every now and then, even if just to keep the defenders honest, it would be good to see the Isles carry it in and drive the net.
Add speed
With Nick Leddy gone, there is a noticeable void of speed on the team.
The Isles were already a slow team, but without Leddy, it is only Mat Barzal who is elite on his skates.
Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock and Anthony Beauvillier are all good but not great skaters. Zach Parise is actually quite fast in a straight line, but at 37 and on a one-year deal, his long-term impact on the team is likely limited.
The lack of speed hurts the team in a variety of ways.
For a start, the team struggles to gain and then hold the offensive zone. Meanwhile, in the defensive zone, they often get pinned because the defenders aren’t fast enough to get on loose pucks and clear them.
Speed also draws a lot of penalties. As players fly by slower defenders, they often draw tripping or hooking penalties.
The lack of speed, at least to LowAttendance, is clearly contributing to the overall lack of scoring.
If Nick Leddy (or even Devon Toews) was still on the team, it is doubtful Kyle Palmieri and Zach Parise would have one goal each through 25 games. There is just nothing being generated from the backend.
Ryan Pulock had 2 points in 12 games before being hurt. Noah Dobson leads with 9 points in 23 games, followed by Scott Mayfield (5 in 25), Andy Greene (4 in 21) and Adam Pelech (4 in 21). I was going to cut it there but the list is so short I might as well keep going. Zdeno Chara is next with 2 in 22, then Pulock, Sebastian Aho (2 in 11) and finally Robin Salo (1 in 7). As a group that in 29 total points, including 5 goals.
Speed does not equal skill but it is easier to find speed than skill and speed can allow those with skill to take advantage.
Send Ross Johnston to the AHL
Just to be clear, I have no major issue with Ross. I actually quite like him and don’t want him on another team.
I just think that the 14th forward spot could be much better utilised.
The first issue is that Lou and Barry clearly feel Johnston will be claimed if he goes on waivers. He has never been placed on them since Lou has been the GM.
Maybe he would be claimed and their reluctance to send him to the AHL is justified. On the other hand, the impact is that the Isles’ roster is essentially only 13 forwards because Johnston is really only a direct replacement for Matt Martin.
His average ice time in the current season is 9:26, lowest on the team. In the 2020-21 season, it was 8:44, higher only than Dymtro Timashov, who got 7:13 in one game. In 2019-20, it was 7:59, higher only than rookie Otto Koivula’s average TOI.
He actually only has 91 career games too. He is so sparingly used that the 14th-forward spot could be far better utilised with Richard Panik.
Panik is a far more versatile winger. He is a faster skater than both Martin and Johnston, he has no problem throwing hard checks and will go to the front of the net. While he didn’t score during the COVID-games, Panik brought a lot of energy and generated some chances (unlike a lot of the more highly paid members of the roster it must be said).
Sure, he is not as imposing and as Martin or Johnston. You see smaller forwards and defencemen, with the threat of Johnston or Martin about to crush them into the glass, make mistakes and often turn pucks over. Panik probably won’t do that. But with his added speed, he might be able to tie a guy up on the boards long enough for reinforcements to arrive and retrieve the puck that way.
Panik could also be played in any wing spot. In a pinch, he could play on the 1st or 2nd line, but in practice could be used to spell veterans such as Cal Clutterbuck (or Matt Martin if the Isles don’t send him for surgery to repair his ankle).Own the mistake in evaluating the strength of the team
Change the net front tactics
This is a minor change, but stop mandating players stand at the top of the goal crease.
So many chances go begging thanks to rebounds falling just out of the reach of a guy trying to be a ‘net-front presence’. That is not to say the tactic is ineffective, certainly not.
But other teams have success against the Islanders having guys hover near the circles to take advantage of rebounds or centre passes.
From the net-front, it takes too long to get a shot off, and often the puck falls just out of reach.
The other downside is that the goalie looms large over any play right at the crease. It is so easy for them to use their size to just swallow any minor opening.
A guy hovering in the slot may have better luck and at this stage it can’t hurt to try.
Start running a meritocracy
The ire of many fans has been raised of late with the handling of, in particular, Oliver Wahlstrom, but to a lesser extent all young players on the Islanders.
Let’s just call it like it is: Barry Trotz likes veterans. He sees young players as risks.
When the team is doing well, as it has the first 3 seasons with Lou and Barry, it is hard to question him. But with the start of this season even LowAttendance is questioning the wisdom. I’ve been a vocal supporter of Lou and Barry since they took over - I still am, but would like to see some things change.
The first is that they start running a genuine meritocracy, which is what the NHL is meant to be.
Answer this question: do you think the best players on the Islanders’ roster play every night?
Naming names is not required - the fans know which veterans have played well this season and which ones haven’t.
Which is why it is infuriating to see players like Wahlstrom or Anthony Beauviller benched and publicly criticsed, while veterans also aren’t performing. The Isles are close to bottom of the table. It isn’t just one or two players who are contributing and in a team full of veterans, frankly, it is hard to point at one or two bad plays from a younger player when the veterans are making just as many mistakes.
That is not to say that Wahlstorm or Beauvillier are without fault. Far from it.
But one can legitimately question the wisdom. In a sport where scoring more goals than the opponent is the objective, I can’t help but wonder how restricting Wahlstrom’s ice time is valuable, given he is one of the few players on the roster who can actually create a chance out of nothing.
Through 25 games, Wahlstrom is tied for 2nd on the team in goals with 8, and is scoring at 0.52 points per game, good for fourth on the team.
There are six NHL players right now that have more goals than the Isles’ leading point scorer (Mat Barzal with 17) has points. The Isles are dead last in goals scored with 54. Before you start pointing out the Isles have played fewe games than the rest of the league, consider that Colorado has 115 in 27 while Minnesota has 108 in 29. They’ve doubled the number of goals the Isles have in 2 and 4 more games played respectively.
Just starting rookies is not the answer. But at some point, you have to start holding people accountable and perhaps sit them for a game or two, no matter how many they may have played previously.
Trade deadline
With such an obvious hole at on the left-hand side of the defence, many have wondered whether Lou would make a trade (particularly since Johnny Boychuk’s contract was traded to Buffalo).
LowAttendance’s opinion is that Lou is will wait until the day of the trade deadline before making any moves now.
If this team is going to crawl back into playoff contention, it will have to do so with the players available.
This is wise because if he jumps the gun too early, even with an improved backend, the team could end up missing the playoffs AND miss out on a high draft pick.
Of course, my preference would be for no 1st-round draft pick trade. Even if it ends up being higher than #16, the Islanders should retain their pick.
The Islanders absolutely could use help now. But they could also use some young prospects in the pipeline. Robin Salo is probably the top one right now, followed by Aatu Raty. There aren’t too many young players putting their hand up for consideration in the top team.
Meanwhile, the draft is the best way for the Islanders to acquire genuine talent. It is too hard for the team to compete in the free-agent market. The chances of landing a genuine difference maker on the free-market is slim, but in the draft it is another story.
The team is currently 29th in points percentage - good for the 6th overall pick. It is never a guarantee, but the probability is higher. Here are some picks from recent drafts that came at or after #6: Jamie Drysdale (#6, 2020); Moritz Seider (#6, 2019); Dylan Cozens (#7, 2019); Trevor Zegras (#9, 2019); Quinn Hughes (#7, 2018).
Even if the Islanders do get rolling and fight into a playoff spot, in a worst case-scenario a 2nd-rounder is the highest pick they part with.
You can do a lot to upgrade a team with a savvy veteran acquisition or two at the trade deadline, without borrowing from the future. With the average age of the Islanders team so high, it really needs some young players in the pipeline to step up in a few seasons.
Diagnose how the evaluators got it wrong
Ultimately, it all starts at the top.
Did the team just get really, really unlucky due to the 13-game road trip and then COVID (plus a few untimely injuries thrown in)? Or was this a bad team from the start?
LowAttendance’s opinion is that the team is not nearly as good as Lou Lamoriello thought it was entering the season.
The defence is bad. The forward group has not played well either, and if the Islanders aren’t the oldest average team in the league, they are top 3 for sure.
The team is slow and where in seasons past, there has been enough speed and determination to overcome the obvious lack of skill that has disappeared this year.
I will concede that perhaps Lou realised it was not as good, and tried to make moves to improve it but they just didn’t pan out. The Fourth Period recently reported that the Isles at least asked the Coyotes and Blue Jackets what it would cost to get Jacob Chychrun or Patrik Laine but ultimately didn’t make the move.
If the Jack Eichel trade happened in the off-season, perhaps Lou may have had a bit more room to manoeuvre.
Following this theory, Lou realised the team wasn’t great (perhaps underappreciating by how much) but thought it could hang on to a playoff spot long enough so that by the time the trade deadline hit, the Isles would have enough cap space to make some moves.
The hope is that, whatever actually was occurring in the Isles’ front office over the off-season, that they accept and take responsibility for getting it wrong.
In a recent article with The Athletic, Lou said:
“Not worry about what the standings are, not worry about who’s in front of us, who’s behind us, or not worrying about what might be in the headlines, not worrying about what the people waiting for a haircut in the barber shop are saying about who’s going to do what and what we should do. We have to stay focused on who we are, what we believe in and go forward and allow the end result to take care of itself.”
While you don’t want to over-react, at the same time, you do have to accept responsibility where you’ve got it wrong. Believing in yourself and your philosophy is fine, but you hope that Lou isn’t burying his head in the sand and pointing at COVID as the reason the team is in the position it is.
There are many things in the control of the organisation that could change, which may have seen the team (as it has many times under Lou and Barry) rise above the adversity.
At the top of the article I spoke about being optimistic. If the Isles just stick to their guns, that optimism will fast turn to pessimism and the Isles will be in the running for the Shane Wright pick.