The Endowment Effect. For those unfamiliar it is a concept where people tend to overvalue something they own.
For any fantasy football fans you’ve probably experienced this before. It also rears its head in investing circles.
As Islanders fans, we’ve also seen this Long Island with regard to the careers of Ross Johnston and now former Islander Kieffer Bellows.
On October 27, Kieffer Bellows was waived and subsequently claimed by the Phillidelphia Flyers.
Coming off a 3-game losing streak to the Devils, Lightning and Panthers fans were incredulous. “Asset management!” they cried.
“How could you waive Bellows over Nikita Soshnikov, Sebastian Aho or Ross Johnston?”
Others, such as LowAttendance, observed Endowment in Effect.
In the off-season, Andrew Gross reported that Lou Lamoriello said there were two Restricted Free Agents were the Islanders were looking for a different team to offer a ‘clean start’. In hindsight, these were almost certainly Kieffer Bellows and Michael Dal Colle (who was not retained by the Islanders).
Over the off-season, Lou likely tried to trade Bellows and found no takers. Asset Management indeed.
Here’s what Elliotte Friedman had to say on his 32 Thoughts Podcast on the move:
This one surprised a lot of people that [Bellows] was out there, simply because you think the Islanders could get something for him. So, I just asked around, I said what am I missing here, what am I not seeing here and the answer I got from a lot of people was that he could really shoot the puck but that the rest of his game had not evolved.
To add to the above, here’s a few snippets from The Athletic by Flyers beat writer Charlie O’Connor introducing Bellows to the Flyers faithful:
Bellows didn’t score many goals (six in 45 games), despite his three most common linemates being Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Mathew Barzal. He wasn’t finishing at an especially high rate (7.6 percent shooting). His defensive play didn’t impress then-Islanders head coach Barry Trotz, and he found himself a regular healthy scratch. It wasn’t like the advanced metrics told a different tale, either — Bellows graded out with a -0.163 impact on his club’s expected goal differential at even strength, which placed him in the 12th percentile among regular NHL forwards.
That said, his skating ability pales in comparison to Tippett, who can legitimately fly, particularly in terms of straight line speed. Bellows’ skating ability has always been something of a weakness, dating back to his days as a prospect. He simply doesn’t have the physical tools in terms of skating that Tippett does.
The fans who are under the Effect attributed Bellows’ lack of sustained high-level play to a lack of minutes under Barry Trotz, whose distaste for anyone who is not a 13-year veteran is well versed.
But with the passage of time and the clarity of a 5-game win streak we can consider this theory: Perhaps Bellows just isn’t that good.
Certainly, it was not lost on LowAttendance that later on the evening of October 27, the Islanders shut out the Rangers and the fans were not nearly as vocal.
It is a well known that every rookie is the next big thing to every fan base. This again is the Endowment Effect.
For what it is worth, here is one cherry-picked advanced stat: Bellows’ expected goal percentage has never been above 50%. For those not statistically inclined you want it to be above 50% - it means, at least so the theory goes, that the team is controlling play and shots on goal. For what it is worth, last season 15 of 16 teams that made the playoffs were in the top half of the league in expected goal % - the Nashville Predators ranked 20th in the league and lost their first round 4-0.
Indeed, in his first 3 games with the Flyers he has 2 shots on net and 0.1 expected goals while actually seeing a slight bump in his average time on ice. The Endowment Effect.
Now we turn to possibly the league’s most proficient pugilist in Ross the Boss Johnston. Indeed the same Ross Johnston, as was screamed repeatedly by some fans, who was not waived by the Islanders instead of Kieffer Bellows. Nor has he ever been by the Islanders. This too is the Endowment Effect.
Lou Lamoriello must think incredibly highly of Johnston because he seems to be untouchable in the 14th-forward spot despite the fact he doesn’t add a lot.
“Toughness” is always a word that is associated with him. Indeed, LowAttendance will admit that he enjoys immensely the smirk on the face of Ross the Boss when some scrapper from an opposing team challenges him. The rolling up of the sleeves, the swagger, knowing he is about to beat his challenger’s face to a pulp is hilarious. It gets me every time.
Yet what it doesn’t get every time is a win and I’d enjoy that a whole lot more. Indeed, last season, Johnston had 4 games where he served a fighting major penalty. The Islanders won exactly 0 of them.
He is a conundrum. In years past when the Islanders weren’t playing well and there was a big game coming, Barry Trotz would grip the proverbial stick (not Johnston’s that is) and bring Ross the Boss in. Game 1 vs Tampa Bay in the bubble for example.
We saw Lane Lambert try the same approach earlier this season against the Panthers, which the Islanders lost 3-2 but it probably should have been 6-1.
There aren’t many in the league who can chuck them like Johnston but there are plenty who seemingly add a lot more value to their team’s ability to win.
Which is why it is odd that Johnston has held the 14th forward spot for 5 seasons now with an iron fist. The Islanders have effectively played most of this time with 13-forwards as a result, and certainly wouldn’t dream of calling up a rookie. They might lose Johnston.
This is the Endowment Effect and it has gripped Lou for 5 seasons.
To be clear, as a fan LowAttendance loves Johnston. When another player challenges Johnston to a fight the enjoyment of watching him smirk and roll up his sleeves as he envisions pulverising his opponent’s face is pure. But LowAttendance also fully understands that Johnston will have little to nil effect on the Islanders’ chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Indeed, LowAttendance is of the opinion that Johnston, despite his fighting prowess, offers little value to the team. If he were placed on waivers he may very well be claimed - the Flyers and John Tortorella seem like likely landing spots. While Lou clearly perceives this as a risk to be managed, LowAttendance feels it is an opportunity begging to be taken.
It likely would improve the team’s prospects. Rather than agonising over losing Johnston, the Islanders will be free to use that roster spot as required. Perhaps a promising young score could have some NHL-level exposure or they just call up another tough guy in the event one is needed.
Of course, there is also the probability that Lou is the only person in the league who has been fooled by the Endowment Effect and Johnston passes safely into the hands the staff at Bridgeport and he goes and terrorises that league.