Have hope: The stat which says the Islanders can still win this series against the Penguins
This isn’t an analytics article. You’ll get one stat: goals against.
Firstly, this isn’t an analytics article. You’ll get one stat: goals against.
That stat, is why I think the New York Islanders can still take this series.
I wrote and nearly published this article twice this year. The first time was in late January after the team gave up 5 goals in one period to the Caps. The second was two games later after that brutal 4-3 loss to the fucken Flyers.
In those games, luck, more than skill is what doomed the Islanders and not long after the team began to ramp up and string together a succession of impressive wins.
My argument is this: It is uncommon for the Islanders to give up more than 3 goals in a game - expect them to tighten up in this area (and others) over the next few games and really take it to the Pens.
The stats
Since Barry Trotz took over, here is the frequency of goals against per game the Isles have given up.
3 goals or fewer (playoffs only): 78.13%
2 goals of fewer (playoffs only): 62.5%
3 goals or fewer (all games): 73.52%
2 goals of fewer (all games): 53.36%
Here you can see the charts.
Frequency of Goals Against the New York Islanders per playoff game (2018-19 season to present) N=32.
Frequency of Goals Against the New York Islanders per game (2018-19 season to present including playoffs) N=238.
Another way to look at these stats, is that in about 1 in 5 games, the Isles give up more than 3 goals (such as in game 3). In the regular season, it is just over 1 in 4.
Another way to look at it is that only 4 times since Barry Trotz took over have the Islanders given up 5 goals or more (including that blowout against Tampa in game 1).
Another way to look at it, is that 5 goals scored by the Pens, statistically speaking, isn’t likely again this series.
The Penguins series
So far, they’ve given up 3, 2 and 5. Meanwhile they’ve scored 4, 1, and 4.
The Isles can stop goals, everyone who watches them play knows that (some even call it boring!).
The question since Trotz took over has always been where are the goals coming from?
With Anders Lee out that question has become more relevant than ever, and yet, the team has somehow managed to score 4 goals in 2 games. It is always ugly, but the Isles often find a way to win.
Refer to the charts above. Even if the Isles score just 3 goals, they still give themselves a fantastic chance at winning games, due to how infrequently other teams reach that milestone against them.
Tristan Jarry is really suspect. The Isles have got him figured out and provided they can get to game 6 and 7, the law of averages favours the Islanders.
This season, the Pens have given up 3 or more goals in 44% of their games, and have given up 2 or more in 59% of their games.
Meanwhile, the drop off from Semyon Varlamov to Ilya Sorokin isn’t the same as to Thomas Greiss. Trotz can put Sorokin in there and know he can steal the series if he needs to (whether he will or not is another matter entirely).
The Islanders need to: clean up their neutral zone play; slow the game down in their own end; legally check the Pens; don’t give up stupid penalties (particularly right after you've scored an equaliser in a big game).
These are all things the Islanders do well and it won’t be surprising to me to see a recovery in game 4.
Let’s Go Isles